IS FRANCE BECOMING A UKRAINE HAWK? by Darius Pio Muccilli

Another French airplane for Zelensky (to go to the G7)” states a comic strip on the French weekly Canard Enchaîné, portraying Zelensky getting on an airbus and a French politician telling him “We’ve agreed that it’s just a loan.”

Far from being just a comic strip, this little joke shows how airplane diplomacy is having an impact on the country’s foreign policy. Macron is eager not only to show support to Ukraine, but to be the best at it, exploiting the ongoing war to restore French grandeur abroad and possibly to distract attention from domestic problems such as retirement age reform.

With forthcoming US elections threaten Ukrainian support due to a possible Republican takeover, and German public opinion pressuring Berlin to be less involved, Paris is willing to occupy a first-level role by filling a void that might emerge. Zelensky is raising the stakes day after day. He has already notched a win the F-16 jets dossier, a request that has finally met the approval of Biden during the G7. It’s a huge step and Zelensky has been patiently courting all governments as he works to collect enough weapons and supplies to oust the Russians.

But, even as France might be Europe’s premiere military power, at least on the continent, it cannot supply all the Kyiv needs. Nevertheless, it seems they are looking to up the ante.

On May 22nd the government took to Parliament a military budget that is the biggest since 1960, when France was involved in the Algerian independence war.

This increase is not just a way to help better the Ukrainians, but as often in politics, a way to help Macron. He needs a great win abroad right now, after a series of defeats have tarnished his political path: the retirement age reform even if achieved has condemned Macron to public hatred. The reform of the European Union towards a more social-democrat fashion is proceeding slowly with each step possible only with German agreement, making his project of a common European defense organization falter as NATO has regained momentum.

More influence for Macron

Following the traditional French-style foreign politics, Macron had wanted NATO, always seen in France as an US tool, to reduce its power  replaced with an all-European army.

After the war broke out, Macron tried to open diplomatic channels meeting both Putin and Xi-Jinping during March 2022. These attempts were a failure, humiliating Macron who represented France.

Macron now understands that the only way to matter is within NATO, so he’s trying to get more influence inside the alliance, both with support for Ukraine and the increased military expenditure.

This strategy is far from being easily achievable, as while France wants to influence the alliance more, there’s Turkey working somewhat successfully to do the same. Moreover, anti-NATO sentiments are still strong in France, dating  back to de Gaulle during the 1950’s.

A measure of French success would be the role the country will play in the forthcoming nomination of NATO’s new General Secretary, as Stoltenberg’s term will end soon. He has stated that he doesn’t want to seek any extension. Seeing a French Secretary General is an absolute fantasy, that is a goal Paris is trying to achieve.

Then we’ll see if all of Macron’s effort will be worth it for him, as if the mission will be accomplished it will be so natural for him to show himself as the EU herald and the promoter of a renewed, Eurocentric and less American NATO.—Dario Pio Muccilli reports about European politics for the Star-Revue. He is an Italian currently living in Paris.